Mls · resolved market
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2fa4a6e4f78c8b15519052636ca09dbf5b9e34dc3689baf1980a540c243b954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,000 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 5,108$3,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,979.47 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 45c | 4,451$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.48 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 55c | 3,649$2,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.14 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 43c | 1,048$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 45c | 1,005$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 26c | 982$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.32 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 38c | 945.97$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.47 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…6d3bbacked Over | 45c | 780$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…e03cbacked Over | 40c | 522$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…1104backed Under | 60c | 522$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 45c | 448.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 29c | 344.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 55c | 307.28$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.27 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 298.7$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.24 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 62c | 246.24$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.57 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4c…24c3backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 56c | 179.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed Under | 79c | 120.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 55c | 117.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 111.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 58c | 103.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 55c | 101.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 44c | 90.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 18c | 76.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Under | 55c | 58.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…0901backed Under | 57c | 46.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Over | 44c | 37.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…1bfdbacked Over | 44c | 35.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 58c | 17.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5Under won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Under won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.