Premier League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb97e745b592de33677695701f40c740958768ae343d60d3d39a9501af869190d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 2,556$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.7 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 32c | 1,690$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.24 | 562 | 41.5%233 W · 329 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 1c | 1,561$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 28c | 1,380$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.29 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…3918backed Over | 3c | 849.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 31c | 450$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Under | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 33c | 240$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 418 | 50.7%212 W · 206 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…f273backed Under | 68c | 174.36$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 10c | 172.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 914 | 35.3%323 W · 591 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 68c | 171.4$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 698 | 51.1%357 W · 341 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 34c | 146.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 33c | 127.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 359 | 41.5%149 W · 210 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 32c | 104.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Under | 67c | 101.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c3…443ebacked Under | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 32c | 70.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 161 | 49.1%79 W · 82 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 66c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1,636 | 52.9%866 W · 770 L | +32.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 33c | 60.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 34c | 56.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 357 | 43.1%154 W · 203 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Over | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 452 | 24.8%112 W · 340 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 337 | 51.3%173 W · 164 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Over | 34c | 38.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 33c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 70c | 23.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 70c | 22.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 144 | 63.2%91 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Newcastle United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.