Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89d320d7ea7cf8a1ddcba8b0b5a614df3d7b6dfbc2c74d4c74695ef35d2aab5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nottingham Forest FCof Newcastle United FC, Nottingham Forest FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Newcastle United FC | 20c | 1,358$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.18 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Nottingham Forest FC | 80c | 925$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Newcastle United FC | 19c | 510.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Newcastle United FC | 19c | 505.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Newcastle United FC | 20c | 408.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 112 | 29.5%33 W · 79 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Newcastle United FC | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Nottingham Forest FC | 80c | 319.75$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 557 | 51.5%287 W · 270 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Newcastle United FC | 20c | 293.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…b057backed Nottingham Forest FC | 80c | 222.58$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 80c | 139$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Nottingham Forest FC | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…bbb2backed Newcastle United FC | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Newcastle United FC | 22c | 114.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Nottingham Forest FC | 79c | 108.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Newcastle United FC | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…c807backed Nottingham Forest FC | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…afc3backed Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 71cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed Newcastle United FC | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361f…5edabacked Nottingham Forest FC | 80c | 32.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 79c | 23.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Newcastle United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.