Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9dd683fdc389f11f21e1917950a61b227c186c0ed809563fd86bc296c7c227e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- US Cremoneseof AC Milan, US Cremonese
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed AC Milan | 7c | 3,999$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.93 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed AC Milan | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed AC Milan | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed US Cremonese | 76c | 149.83$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked US Cremonese | 79c | 107.42$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed AC Milan | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked US Cremonese | 78c | 76.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed AC Milan | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked US Cremonese | 80c | 63.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed AC Milan | 23c | 58.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked AC Milan | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed US Cremonese | 77c | 25.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed US Cremonese | 76c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed US Cremonese | 76c | 18.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 168 | 38.1%64 W · 104 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed US Cremonese | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)this page
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-2.5)AC Milan won
- US Cremonese vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Cremonese vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Cremonese vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5Under won
- US Cremonese vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.