Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fd1f546f4721f08ef877b2b22c26b258c081fc3b313d3dd6289c1eb05cb634d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 25c | 6,968$1,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.45 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 67c | 6,868$4,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,283.81 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 35c | 3,853$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.67 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked Over | 35c | 2,400$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 35c | 1,345$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.61 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 6c | 1,169$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 68c | 1,000$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 65c | 769$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.15 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb72…2514backed Over | 30c | 630.86$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…4488backed Under | 66c | 602.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…d35fbacked Under | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 65c | 416.48$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.76 | 168 | 38.1%64 W · 104 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 29c | 340.75$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…e503backed Under | 70c | 326.63$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b71…6269backed Under | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Under | 68c | 241.17$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…1618backed Under | 70c | 162.77$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb315…d6c9backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…d473backed Under | 70c | 140.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 66c | 119.8$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 28c | 117.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 66c | 110.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…6e5dbacked Over | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…dea4backed Over | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415d…a37cbacked Under | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 29c | 89.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 33c | 85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 68c | 61.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f2…2cb0backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 65c | 58.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 31c | 55.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…5fc0backed Over | 34c | 44.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dc…af80backed Under | 71c | 33.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 33c | 32.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 68c | 31.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6250…8707backed Under | 72c | 27.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…f4d9backed Under | 71c | 21.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…b628backed Under | 71c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 71c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ac…00b0backed Under | 68c | 16.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7f64backed Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)US Cremonese won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-2.5)AC Milan won
- US Cremonese vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Cremonese vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Cremonese vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.