Asian League · resolved market
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9fb890b38dd4a14548cc9b83805cbcc7d6d05701992eda511b00e88f37ac330
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.98 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 72c | 2,417$1,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,743.35 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 1,533$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.31 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 1,216$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.36 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 57c | 1,000$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.21 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Under | 58c | 600$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 76c | 447.36$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 45c | 437.7$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.49 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 56c | 412.64$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.56 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 75c | 410.67$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 26c | 269.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.3 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 26c | 261.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.17 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 36c | 249.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 55c | 237.75$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.79 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 217.81$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.77 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ed…467abacked Under | 76c | 215$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…521fbacked Over | 71c | 174.86$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Under | 64c | 154$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed Under | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 46c | 133$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…604abacked Under | 40c | 125.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 112.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Under | 52c | 110.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 74c | 109.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 56c | 108$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Under | 15c | 103$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b4…87bfbacked Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -8.8wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Under | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 55c | 96.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 55c | 96.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 39c | 94.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 28c | 89.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 26c | 76.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 45c | 65.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 26c | 56.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 225 | 44%99 W · 126 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219c…fed6backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Over | 46c | 49.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 72c | 49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 24c | 47.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 44c | 46.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…d0a6backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 46c | 36.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Over | 49c | 31.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Under | 72c | 31.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 107 | 73.8%79 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 46c | 27.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 64c | 25.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.