Asian League · resolved market
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbced65ea8e937b13153d9fd3fc5454a395df1bfe639564e407fb084949448c37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 18c | 3,265$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.67 | 95 | 26.3%25 W · 70 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 64c | 1,637$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.32 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 36c | 1,615$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.97 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 79c | 284.72$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…810cbacked Over | 47c | 223.64$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.64 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 23c | 218.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Under | 5c | 205.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 47c | 180.85$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe875…8492backed Under | 17c | 175.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 57c | 162.67$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 120 | 74.2%89 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 45c | 110.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219c…fed6backed Under | 19c | 99.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 55c | 93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 47c | 85.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 46c | 71.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 53c | 70.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 225 | 44%99 W · 126 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 65.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 47c | 55.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 47c | 53.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 54c | 45.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 53c | 43.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad9…77c2backed Over | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 71c | 35.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…44ebbacked Over | 46c | 26.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.