Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba06eef5612c4a3800746f7a4934bd0eb13f22b72daaa9b1247864d557676928
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204e…8d08backed Yes | 0c | 12,623$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 0cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 4c | 1,698$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,197$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Yes | 6c | 1,057$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +512.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 76c | 840.24$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.66 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 24c | 807.28$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.12 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 20c | 615.07$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed No | 79c | 519.56$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.21 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 24c | 497.56$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.96 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 22c | 488.39$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 13c | 402.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…62a2backed Yes | 13c | 367.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +9.3wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Yes | 15c | 363$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 77c | 320.85$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaf…24f8backed Yes | 6c | 319.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 6c | 195.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 75c | 162$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 74c | 160.42$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Yes | 25c | 159.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 76c | 152.05$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 77c | 151.59$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…5d6ebacked Yes | 23c | 131.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…d88cbacked Yes | 26c | 121.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dd…80a1backed No | 76c | 111.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf11a…d3e3backed No | 76c | 97.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 92.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 82.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 77c | 74.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 75c | 69.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 80c | 63.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 76c | 62.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 17c | 58.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Yes | 24c | 56.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 76c | 55.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 74c | 38.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…675cbacked Yes | 27c | 37.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 33.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked No | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 76c | 25.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 77c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed No | 50c | 22.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +14.3wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 77c | 21.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed No | 77c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked No | 77c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-22?this page
- Will New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?Yes won
- Will New York City FC win on 2026-04-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.