Mls · resolved market
Will New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43887153e49a53d3f72194a205726239f5c737d5df9e23c3e49de20fa4b65176
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 2,447$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.38 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 14c | 1,467$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.11 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 2c | 628.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Yes | 13c | 441.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.32 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 14c | 435.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 72c | 318.39$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 23c | 254.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.06 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 71c | 224.76$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.61 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Yes | 28c | 205.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.92 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 28c | 200.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 48c | 171.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 62c | 169.68$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 11c | 162.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.25 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 27c | 160.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 29c | 156.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab7c…746dbacked Yes | 10c | 145.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 35c | 124.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.17 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 26c | 109.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 18c | 108.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.54 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 76c | 98.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 97.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Yes | 22c | 89.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 18c | 80.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 57c | 79.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 19c | 77.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Yes | 24c | 75.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 23c | 63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 61.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 51c | 56.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 41.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 76c | 36.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-22?No won
- Will New York City FC win on 2026-04-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.