Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba0708fa887c20a5df79c5a522e1552e33e645f7c9a6c1e0c151aa7027646645
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 642.08$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.59 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 13c | 221$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.4 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 20c | 215.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 213 | 31.9%68 W · 145 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 62c | 200.38$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.4 | 880 | 48%422 W · 458 L | +41.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 155.54$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.85 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 44c | 142.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.42 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 19c | 125.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 18c | 120.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 665 | 21.8%145 W · 520 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…93e0backed Yes | 11c | 111.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.94 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 53c | 88.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 13c | 88.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 80.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 61.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1,065 | 35.1%374 W · 691 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 57c | 52.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 795 | 36.6%291 W · 504 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 52.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…8b12backed Yes | 71c | 51.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 57 | 89.5%51 W · 6 L | +13.5wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 65c | 46.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 60 | 78.3%47 W · 13 L | +17.0wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked Yes | 48c | 42.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 26c | 40.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…c03fbacked Yes | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa738…a520backed Yes | 75c | 39.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe24d…4e75backed No | 72c | 38.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 47c | 29.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 282 | 51.1%144 W · 138 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 71c | 26.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 439 | 51%224 W · 215 L | +23.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 62c | 23.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 70c | 21.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 51c | 20.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.