Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba2812ba517d5995be09034a36b3b0bb0b9bdc5aa5c179e74d8723d7a30127af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 38c | 309.89$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.04 | 1,489 | 24.6%366 W · 1,123 L | -34.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 31c | 256$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 32c | 233.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 189.07$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 159.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 1,083 | 65.6%710 W · 373 L | -16.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 66c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 140.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 917 | 40.2%369 W · 548 L | +112.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 38c | 119.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 118.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 113.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 70c | 111.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 96 | 69.8%67 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 99.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 98.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 42c | 96.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 85.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 31c | 76.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,801 | 50.4%907 W · 894 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 66.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 60c | 61.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 33c | 61.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 677 | 58.5%396 W · 281 L | +50.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 68c | 58.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 43.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 68c | 43.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 41c | 42.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 781 | 51.9%405 W · 376 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 39.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 35c | 38.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 36.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 52c | 35.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 67c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4327…288fbacked No | 68c | 34.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 40c | 33.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 135 | 23.7%32 W · 103 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 31.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 31.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 35c | 31.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…4015backed No | 68c | 26.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,003 | 71%712 W · 291 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…9862backed Yes | 51c | 23.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 72c | 22.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 64c | 22.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a8…ffa4backed No | 70c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 61c | 20.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…d8fcbacked No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…b7bdbacked No | 68c | 19.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 70c | 18.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 70c | 16.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 186 | 39.2%73 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 16.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 269 | 69.5%187 W · 82 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.