MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba2e93bbc0cb240d53060463a0f9767072e039736d57faa38705b5fb844d6063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb27…b180backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 1,019$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.18 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 714.22$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.96 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 475.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.88 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 452.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.15 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 399.95$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.97 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 359.35$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.42 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 270.2$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.31 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 152.33$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 105.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 81.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 68.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 61.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 58.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 35.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 33.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 33.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 31.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 28.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 27.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 24.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-7.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.