MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab89903154aa503869f0107a640a1aad63a9b7f144b68a493a8c73e25509574a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 65c | 15,000$9,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,225.48 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 35c | 8,277$2,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,896.64 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 43c | 5,362$2,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,307.23 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 50c | 2,998$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497.53 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 49c | 2,450$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.59 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 47c | 1,550$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.5 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed Under | 4c | 1,500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…ce77backed Under | 3c | 1,300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 52c | 1,139$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.29 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Under | 3c | 917.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Under | 5c | 900$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…37acbacked Under | 3c | 900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 48c | 862$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.24 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Under | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Under | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 52c | 674$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.48 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 51c | 602.73$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.39 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 544.44$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.11 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 47c | 517.52$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.29 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 51c | 414.81$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.24 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 407.61$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.8 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 50c | 401.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.4 | 947 | 34.4%326 W · 621 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 5c | 337.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 52c | 307.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.15 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 51c | 250.01$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.71 | 849 | 49.1%417 W · 432 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Under | 40c | 157.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Under | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 48c | 133.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Over | 49c | 111.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 546 | 54.9%300 W · 246 L | +12.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 36c | 102$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 49c | 101.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 59c | 90.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 53c | 82.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…af5bbacked Under | 39c | 81.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 49c | 71.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 24c | 62.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 57.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 46c | 54.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 53c | 46.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 77c | 45.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 47c | 45.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 41.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 39.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…add6backed Over | 56c | 35.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 333 | 28.2%94 W · 239 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 35c | 34.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 32.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 42c | 31.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Under | 51c | 30.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 60c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 68c | 16.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-7.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.