Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Crvena Zvezda vs. Celtic end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba43948663c7f1e9da82f5e1eba1e16ac3c2219ca3d939707db0c8c9890e0ea7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 59c | 2,983$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.48 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 2,187$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.8 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 51c | 747.27$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.47 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 72c | 664.74$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.75 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 72c | 354.29$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.09 | 200 | 50%100 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d8…1b0ebacked Yes | 30c | 338.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +105%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 299$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.33 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 29c | 282.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.76 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.18 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb96c…6cc6backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e5…c3d4backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 72c | 75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…31a3backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 79c | 69.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 45c | 66.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +149.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b3…fd19backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 57c | 41.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…e7d8backed Yes | 61c | 41.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 43c | 29.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 23.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 75c | 16.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crvena Zvezda vs. Celtic end in a draw?this page
- Will Celtic win on 2025-09-24?No won
- Will Crvena Zvezda win on 2025-09-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.