Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Crvena Zvezda win on 2025-09-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fa802f417e5b7bfcaae371395a41c863bda969e5ad995043b73add73e0d33e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 57c | 24,444$14,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,410.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd16a…7691backed Yes | 43c | 19,753$8,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,493.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 39c | 12,150$4,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,747.41 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…4c8cbacked No | 63c | 12,075$7,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,467.75 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 57c | 9,500$5,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,040 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Yes | 37c | 8,689$3,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,224.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Yes | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 62c | 4,931$3,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.81 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 45c | 2,828$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.24 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…de60backed Yes | 38c | 1,837$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 62c | 1,627$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 42c | 1,592$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.52 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 1,223$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.67 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 50c | 1,121$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.23 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 200 | 50%100 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked No | 62c | 700$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 74c | 476.3$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.96 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 38c | 450$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…3ab8backed Yes | 24c | 411.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 62c | 399.59$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.59 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked No | 59c | 365.76$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.96 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 103 | 32%33 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…9780backed Yes | 38c | 266.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…8675backed No | 63c | 239.19$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 65c | 172.35$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…2882backed Yes | 35c | 164.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44cb…e3d8backed Yes | 35c | 154.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…9fecbacked Yes | 46c | 145.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 63c | 119.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 61c | 111.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…998ebacked Yes | 38c | 110.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -33%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…7293backed No | 67c | 77.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 65c | 70.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 62c | 68.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a12…1e5abacked Yes | 38c | 68.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 61c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…21ffbacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed Yes | 37c | 53.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9486…eecdbacked No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed No | 58c | 26.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 66c | 18.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crvena Zvezda win on 2025-09-24?this page
- Will Celtic win on 2025-09-24?No won
- Will Crvena Zvezda vs. Celtic end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.