Fifa International · resolved market
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 2 Australia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba4717e2aaa6fa2ce9ed6825f2419dfe64dc01be1696f6a3199ddc499531b1c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4a4…a73ebacked Yes | 1c | 27,051$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.76 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…4781backed Yes | 3c | 11,289$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.53 | 525 | 22.5%118 W · 407 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 9,497$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.01 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…dbecbacked Yes | 3c | 2,874$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 316 | 11.4%36 W · 280 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…0cf1backed Yes | 4c | 2,857$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 115 | 5.2%6 W · 109 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…5861backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 176 | 36.4%64 W · 112 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba9…2e70backed Yes | 4c | 1,538$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 198 | 17.2%34 W · 164 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…cf16backed Yes | 4c | 1,364$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 626 | 6.7%42 W · 584 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,311$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 2,271 | 39.5%896 W · 1,375 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e95…1776backed Yes | 4c | 1,259$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 156 | 7.7%12 W · 144 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c9…8803backed Yes | 4c | 1,136$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 17.1%20 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Yes | 4c | 1,081$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…d3e8backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 151 | 27.8%42 W · 109 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 4c | 958.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…5a4bbacked Yes | 5c | 635.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 360 | 24.4%88 W · 272 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd28…449dbacked Yes | 3c | 610.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…4997backed Yes | 6c | 541.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 235 | 13.2%31 W · 204 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd69…f53abacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 66 | 7.6%5 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…238abacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 20.8%37 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2948…c872backed Yes | 4c | 487.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…69afbacked Yes | 4c | 476.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 28.3%51 W · 129 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220e…61fbbacked Yes | 3c | 420$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…ac23backed Yes | 4c | 417.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 957 | 39.5%378 W · 579 L | -18.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b51…9144backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed Yes | 4c | 399.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 783 | 17.4%136 W · 647 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 4c | 340.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3938…26d7backed Yes | 4c | 335.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x639c…de6dbacked Yes | 4c | 318.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 112 | 4.5%5 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c12…748fbacked Yes | 4c | 298.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 324 | 22.5%73 W · 251 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…4c05backed Yes | 4c | 284.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c0…346cbacked Yes | 4c | 276.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 315 | 20.3%64 W · 251 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Yes | 4c | 243.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 22%22 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 2 Australia?this page
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?No won
- Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia?Yes won
- Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia?No won
- Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 Australia?No won
- Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 3 Australia?No won
- Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia?No won
- Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia?No won
- Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Australia?No won
- Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 Australia?No won
- Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 0 Australia?No won
- Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 1 Australia?No won
- Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 3 Australia?No won
- Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 0 Australia?No won
- Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 1 Australia?No won
- Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 2 Australia?No won
- Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.