Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba4a0f05c35e9352aedb216741f2a9ca4e286e29efd5fbc396686f938a678b0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 280.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 25c | 276.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 247.94$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 156.84$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 123.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 25c | 115$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 109.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 99.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 26c | 96.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 88.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 86.36$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 85.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b2…697cbacked Yes | 32c | 78.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 72c | 75.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 71.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 28c | 70.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…6957backed Yes | 28c | 70.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 66.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 28c | 57.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 70c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 25c | 44.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 41.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 41.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 37.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 36.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 73c | 27.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…fabebacked No | 75c | 25.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 71c | 23.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 19.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 17.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…59f2backed No | 76c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 73cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…67abbacked No | 71c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 76cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.