Europa Conference League · resolved market
Rīga FC vs. KÍ: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba4bbca8c9d48eef704936ce2558065d207c75ec78f6ae7be5fcba8639d8486f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Over | 60c | 3,000$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd97d…6bf4backed Under | 44c | 2,783$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 49c | 1,280$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.06 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 1,224$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.42 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 56c | 1,198$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.32 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 130 | 57.7%75 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 57c | 750$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over | 56c | 588.37$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.99 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 38c | 403.64$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.13 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 11c | 360$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 59c | 254$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Under | 16c | 224$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 222 | 37.8%84 W · 138 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Under | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 58c | 102.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 59c | 98.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 42c | 94.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 40c | 78.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 277 | 37.9%105 W · 172 L | -17.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 70.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 1,034 | 50.8%525 W · 509 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 57c | 63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 25c | 58.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 851 | 42%357 W · 494 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 59c | 54.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884b…c480backed Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 39c | 48.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 42c | 35.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 55c | 22.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rīga FC vs. KÍ: O/U 2.5this page
- Rīga FC vs. KÍ: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Rīga FC vs. KÍ: O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. KÍ: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. KÍ: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. KÍ: O/U 4.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. KÍ: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Rīga FC (-1.5)KÍ won
- Spread: Rīga FC (-2.5)KÍ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.