CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs megoshort - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba6099dd45aa606b3c26bb34af4de8330ec06b9bc901686b5cfca582e83f8514
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- megoshortof ex-MANA eSports, megoshort
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked megoshort | 46c | 8,612$3,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,672.47 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed ex-MANA eSports | 54c | 3,389$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.93 | 2,608 | 30.9%807 W · 1,801 L | -103.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed ex-MANA eSports | 57c | 1,925$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.86 | 5,262 | 31.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L | -381.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa28a…01c5backed megoshort | 47c | 1,862$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…d92fbacked megoshort | 47c | 1,684$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.85 | 220 | 56.8%125 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked ex-MANA eSports | 54c | 1,465$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.17 | 3,415 | 29.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L | -275.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…7bbfbacked ex-MANA eSports | 56c | 1,343$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.79 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked ex-MANA eSports | 68c | 1,263$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.86 | 5,028 | 55%2,763 W · 2,265 L | +112.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked ex-MANA eSports | 55c | 790$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.07 | 3,165 | 45.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L | -74.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…ed78backed ex-MANA eSports | 59c | 756.52$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.02 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed megoshort | 51c | 670$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.6 | 5,810 | 37.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L | +78.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…a778backed megoshort | 49c | 625.26$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.54 | 301 | 55.8%168 W · 133 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c81…5518backed ex-MANA eSports | 27c | 590.97$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.36 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ex-MANA eSports | 59c | 542.64$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.4 | 6,466 | 42.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L | -78.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…fb15backed ex-MANA eSports | 52c | 509.21$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.22 | 197 | 48.7%96 W · 101 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…142dbacked ex-MANA eSports | 52c | 495$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…0566backed megoshort | 44c | 372.8$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.63 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed ex-MANA eSports | 51c | 296.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.38 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked ex-MANA eSports | 60c | 267$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 2,770 | 37.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L | -139.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…8c32backed megoshort | 33c | 240.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.37 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed megoshort | 48c | 226.66$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 607 | 55%334 W · 273 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked megoshort | 62c | 221.62$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 2,330 | 42.5%991 W · 1,339 L | -71.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed megoshort | 32c | 207.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.23 | 543 | 39.4%214 W · 329 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…42a6backed megoshort | 24c | 204.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.38 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed ex-MANA eSports | 54c | 189.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.59 | 1,314 | 44.3%582 W · 732 L | +47.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ex-MANA eSports | 57c | 189.95$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.37 | 5,474 | 46.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked ex-MANA eSports | 64c | 183.33$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked ex-MANA eSports | 52c | 183$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 380 | 32.1%122 W · 258 L | -18.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked ex-MANA eSports | 40c | 173.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 2,454 | 34.4%845 W · 1,609 L | -189.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked ex-MANA eSports | 48c | 161.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.28 | 3,888 | 36.6%1,423 W · 2,465 L | -197.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d4…0289backed ex-MANA eSports | 64c | 155.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 46.6%81 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf120…ce3cbacked megoshort | 31c | 151.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.56 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed ex-MANA eSports | 67c | 150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 485 | 43.1%209 W · 276 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…663bbacked ex-MANA eSports | 50c | 145$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed megoshort | 42c | 139.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.11 | 2,467 | 24.6%606 W · 1,861 L | -318.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked ex-MANA eSports | 51c | 130.37$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…54d5backed ex-MANA eSports | 47c | 124.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked megoshort | 69c | 118.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 2,119 | 42.9%909 W · 1,210 L | -66.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked ex-MANA eSports | 43c | 118.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 4,661 | 43.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf186…03a9backed megoshort | 20c | 117$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +16.0wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…6eebbacked ex-MANA eSports | 61c | 102$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf2…2ce6backed megoshort | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1151…f115backed ex-MANA eSports | 26c | 96.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed megoshort | 43c | 92.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 773 | 51.2%396 W · 377 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked ex-MANA eSports | 54c | 89.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 2,084 | 47%979 W · 1,105 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa8…efa7backed ex-MANA eSports | 52c | 66.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked ex-MANA eSports | 64c | 63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 1,830 | 41.6%762 W · 1,068 L | -68.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed megoshort | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe54e…4a99backed megoshort | 56c | 44.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked ex-MANA eSports | 35c | 44.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed ex-MANA eSports | 57c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 2,491 | 41.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L | -114.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298f…b4e1backed ex-MANA eSports | 72c | 42.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked ex-MANA eSports | 41c | 39.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 592 | 2.9%17 W · 575 L | -219.6wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 10-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…47c8backed megoshort | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked ex-MANA eSports | 51c | 35.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…cc65backed ex-MANA eSports | 57c | 33.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 223 | 46.2%103 W · 120 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked megoshort | 45c | 33.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked megoshort | 43c | 31.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 721 | 53.7%387 W · 334 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…4efebacked megoshort | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked ex-MANA eSports | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 132 | 44.7%59 W · 73 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed ex-MANA eSports | 54c | 28.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed ex-MANA eSports | 53c | 25.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x262a…cd1dbacked ex-MANA eSports | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…6de5backed megoshort | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed megoshort | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 245 | 58%142 W · 103 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs megoshort - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs megoshort (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group Bmegoshort won
- Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs megoshort - Map 1 Winnermegoshort won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.