NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba94f651b43b0d8818a619580edd82a80637fad771ba8c0faf72a887b5434a22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Celtics | 46c | 4,813$2,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,224 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Rockets | 54c | 4,500$2,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,070 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 44c | 3,499$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…33dbbacked Rockets | 56c | 2,750$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 45c | 811.02$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Rockets | 53c | 583.12$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.28 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Rockets | 54c | 430.82$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.36 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Rockets | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd57…a167backed Celtics | 48c | 281.25$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Rockets | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.71 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics | 47c | 124$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Rockets | 53c | 108.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Rockets | 55c | 91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Celtics | 48c | 79.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Rockets | 52c | 79.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…7b85backed Rockets | 57c | 75.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Rockets | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…1263backed Rockets | 57c | 66.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c4…09a3backed Rockets | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Rockets | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Rockets | 54c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Celtics | 48c | 33.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcd…651cbacked Rockets | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…38c7backed Rockets | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Rockets | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)this page
- Rockets vs. CelticsRockets won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.