NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3469a4dfb45d8d75ccf0fd986f966a7d0f0ba16dbd92afb2e97fbda752f562db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 11,444$5,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,900.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Under | 50c | 10,873$5,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,436.61 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 53c | 7,649$4,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,053.11 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22c…9050backed Over | 51c | 5,072$2,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,462.26 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 4,195$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.84 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 49c | 2,002$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.61 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…33dbbacked Under | 54c | 1,750$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 51c | 1,451$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.98 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 29c | 689.39$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.41 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 55c | 580$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 562.46$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.96 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 49c | 439.91$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.35 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…0956backed Over | 63c | 391.67$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.67 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 43c | 344.8$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.6 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 62c | 322.05$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…0407backed Under | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Under | 46c | 249.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…07d4backed Over | 49c | 205.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f05…8937backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 470 | 28.1%132 W · 338 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…0510backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…71dbbacked Under | 53c | 196.34$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Over | 20c | 171.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.58 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 126$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…a58abacked Over | 54c | 112.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f00…8982backed Over | 49c | 105.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Over | 47c | 105.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Over | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8984…8af8backed Under | 52c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5899…032dbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc30…197abacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…1f92backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa2…2da1backed Over | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…f8a4backed Over | 48c | 26.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…fea4backed Over | 48c | 22.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 54c | 20.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…d7abbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5this page
- Rockets vs. CelticsRockets won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.