NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40653eb9ac21b650f625ad5fe6d425ccc710e5c17284f753ace818593174f4e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Celtics | 50c | 55,662$27,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,790.69 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Rockets | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,000 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Rockets | 49c | 11,848$5,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,042.42 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Celtics | 51c | 8,274$4,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,192.04 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Rockets | 52c | 5,764$2,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,766.9 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Celtics | 48c | 4,020$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.6 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Rockets | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Rockets | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Rockets | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…6f0cbacked Rockets | 50c | 2,737$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.38 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Celtics | 50c | 2,730$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.98 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Celtics | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 57c | 638$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Celtics | 48c | 429.17$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Rockets | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 389 | 42.9%167 W · 222 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Rockets | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Rockets | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Rockets | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Rockets | 45c | 378.64$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.25 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Celtics | 48c | 354.17$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Celtics | 55c | 345.55$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Celtics | 48c | 312$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Celtics | 51c | 300$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…ad20backed Rockets | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Rockets | 46c | 292.83$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.72 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Celtics | 45c | 275.21$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.75 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Celtics | 50c | 241.53$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.77 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…7e7bbacked Rockets | 52c | 213$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d6…e290backed Celtics | 49c | 212$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Rockets | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Celtics | 49c | 201.02$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Rockets | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Rockets | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.8 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5744…9d5dbacked Celtics | 53c | 167.28$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rockets | 48c | 165.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Rockets | 49c | 159.19$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 236 | 48.7%115 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Celtics | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f05…8937backed Rockets | 53c | 113.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 470 | 28.1%132 W · 338 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…9231backed Celtics | 55c | 110.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Rockets | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Rockets | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Celtics | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…8e0ebacked Celtics | 51c | 98.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…feeebacked Celtics | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Rockets | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8984…8af8backed Rockets | 48c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Celtics | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Rockets | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…591abacked Rockets | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Rockets | 50c | 42.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 346 | 44.2%153 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…e279backed Celtics | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc538…484abacked Celtics | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Rockets | 53c | 20.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Celtics | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Rockets | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)this page
- Rockets vs. CelticsRockets won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.