CS2 · resolved market
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaafcc401145ac3a24aa663d282d0c8e2aebd1c42a4c3200b816ae79f929e40e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- B8of B8, BIG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x191b…5b67backed BIG | 59c | 5,020$2,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,964.55 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed B8 | 41c | 4,000$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed B8 | 38c | 2,860$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.25 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked BIG | 59c | 837.18$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.84 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…be7cbacked B8 | 39c | 520$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.2 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…f362backed B8 | 40c | 506.59$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.85 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…bf89backed B8 | 4c | 490.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.84 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed BIG | 58c | 251.71$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.99 | 443 | 43.3%192 W · 251 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked B8 | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed B8 | 42c | 205.98$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.47 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed BIG | 60c | 169.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…da67backed B8 | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 387 | 54.8%212 W · 175 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…84d0backed B8 | 42c | 58.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed BIG | 62c | 23.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2B8 won
- Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 WinnerBIG won
- Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 WinnerB8 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5)BIG won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5)B8 won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5)BIG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.