MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbab69a8da3eedb66999825b6317787c042237c2519e887c7a2ad963a56b34a4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 2,593$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.2 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 2,292$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.11 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 1,835$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.81 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 1,747$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.8 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 1,701$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.67 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 1,655$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.29 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 1,309$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.21 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 1,300$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked San Diego Padres | 47c | 1,298$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.14 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 575$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.75 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 464.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.04 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 403.82$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.91 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked San Diego Padres | 47c | 182.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 115.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 27c | 78.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 157 | 57.3%90 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 47.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 41.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 40.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…2a64backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 34.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 31.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 24.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.