Tennis · resolved market
Boss Open: Zverev vs. Nakashima
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbae0db545b70f8f3dce1e857866a43d2dbfb0bf7b5ecdd2f760e09c841d6cb1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zverevof Zverev, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fd5…d06bbacked Nakashima | 27c | 13,112$3,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,518.81 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Zverev | 73c | 7,500$5,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Nakashima | 25c | 3,765$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.33 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…e6fcbacked Zverev | 75c | 3,764$2,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Zverev | 73c | 3,393$2,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.69 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Nakashima | 27c | 1,855$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…38eabacked Zverev | 76c | 1,076$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Zverev | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Zverev | 73c | 869.06$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.51 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Nakashima | 26c | 800$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Nakashima | 31c | 748.12$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Zverev | 74c | 682$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.32 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Nakashima | 28c | 544.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Zverev | 74c | 425.38$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nakashima | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Zverev | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Zverev | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nakashima | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Zverev | 75c | 337.6$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Zverev | 76c | 320.42$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Zverev | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Zverev | 68c | 208$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Nakashima | 19c | 202.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Nakashima | 27c | 185.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Zverev | 73c | 185.19$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Zverev | 74c | 145$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…e0f2backed Zverev | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8145…3155backed Zverev | 77c | 126.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Zverev | 77c | 122.96$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ab…790bbacked Nakashima | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Nakashima | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Zverev | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Zverev | 76c | 66.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Zverev | 75c | 61.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…e6a5backed Nakashima | 26c | 52.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…4b3ebacked Zverev | 69c | 47.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Zverev | 77c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fa…c2acbacked Zverev | 76c | 37.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x545b…b64ebacked Zverev | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…f7edbacked Zverev | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.