Tennis · resolved market

ATP Toronto – Michelsen vs. Tien

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb02bc6e699f0ed34c72c32920ce1f10f1833384d755137c3c6aa9709815c47e

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Michelsenof Michelsen, Tien
Resolved: Aug 2, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $58,908
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $55,287

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,908 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5ba6…0f07backed Tien	48c	7,500$3,566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,566	669	49.6%332 W · 337 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Tien	35c	7,076$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	284	43%122 W · 162 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Michelsen	50c	6,132$3,061 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,071.63	579	39.7%230 W · 349 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2360…1c1cbacked Tien	17c	5,924$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	88	31.8%28 W · 60 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd9…544abacked Tien	45c	4,774$2,143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,143	201	55.7%112 W · 89 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Michelsen	55c	4,293$2,382 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,911.78	1,090	35.9%391 W · 699 L	+16.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Michelsen	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,500	260	39.2%102 W · 158 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Tien	50c	2,664$1,332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,331.9	122	31.1%38 W · 84 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Michelsen	58c	2,379$1,380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$999.48	761	46.6%355 W · 406 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Michelsen	69c	1,880$1,294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$586.5	101	38.6%39 W · 62 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Michelsen	51c	1,578$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$778.43	488	51.6%252 W · 236 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Tien	53c	1,400$742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$742	430	42.8%184 W · 246 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Tien	40c	1,184$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478	84	53.6%45 W · 39 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Tien	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	316	50%158 W · 158 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Michelsen	48c	1,000$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520	154	52.6%81 W · 73 L	+10.8wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22ab…3bb0backed Tien	52c	961.54$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+54.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbccd…6aeebacked Tien	52c	800$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Michelsen	48c	800$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$419.56	159	57.2%91 W · 68 L	+15.8wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Tien	51c	699.94$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.97	296	36.8%109 W · 187 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b8…612abacked Tien	51c	680.06$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.83	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Michelsen	69c	675$467 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208	1,852	44.5%825 W · 1,027 L	-20.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27a9…8781backed Michelsen	50c	603.8$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303.8	154	39.6%61 W · 93 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Michelsen	52c	580$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$279.8	161	40.4%65 W · 96 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Tien	28c	490$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.2	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Tien	49c	478.43$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.43	627	42.4%266 W · 361 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Tien	45c	418.74$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.02	321	41.1%132 W · 189 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69cd…06f3backed Tien	51c	392.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Tien	28c	390.05$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.79	178	33.1%59 W · 119 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaca…49e6backed Michelsen	67c	363.92$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.09	68	35.3%24 W · 44 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Michelsen	62c	232.28$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.8	11,435	43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L	+17.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e79…42e0backed Michelsen	49c	228.94$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.76	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Michelsen	49c	204$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.04	480	43.3%208 W · 272 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Michelsen	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	639	42.4%271 W · 368 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Tien	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	183	38.8%71 W · 112 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Tien	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	383	56.9%218 W · 165 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Tien	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	731	47.9%350 W · 381 L	-16.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Michelsen	48c	192.31$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	391	44.2%173 W · 218 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Tien	49c	178.43$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.43	204	31.4%64 W · 140 L	+7.7wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e8…dde4backed Tien	52c	159.62$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Tien	53c	152.13$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.63	245	29.8%73 W · 172 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99fc…ec26backed Tien	34c	147.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	645	40.2%259 W · 386 L	-19.6wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Michelsen	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	70	28.6%20 W · 50 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x639e…a9d4backed Michelsen	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	67	50.7%34 W · 33 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e3b…14fcbacked Michelsen	49c	101.02$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.52	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ca…198bbacked Michelsen	61c	100.78$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.14	54	59.3%32 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aea…c5f2backed Michelsen	68c	100$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Michelsen	67c	91$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.99	439	48.5%213 W · 226 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Michelsen	51c	78.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.43	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	59cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f4d…6be0backed Tien	52c	75$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Michelsen	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	2,335	46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L	+55.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7580…cb71backed Michelsen	49c	56.51$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa58e…3af7backed Michelsen	68c	50.97$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.31	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Michelsen	61c	47.2$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.41	91	30.8%28 W · 63 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bf2…85b7backed Tien	43c	46.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.04	88	58%51 W · 37 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff9…e494backed Michelsen	75c	38.15$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.54	360	40%144 W · 216 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4b2…273bbacked Michelsen	68c	32$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.24	66	59.1%39 W · 27 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Michelsen	48c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	127	37%47 W · 80 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-32%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Michelsen	69c	28.56$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.85	159	61%97 W · 62 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa896…e5c1backed Michelsen	71c	28.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	69cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5f01…4ca2backed Michelsen	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	109	56.9%62 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

ATP Toronto – Michelsen vs. Tien

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market