MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb0cd701cafd095f778cbbaa54be60312158045192dfcf9af21b73e54a904465
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof San Diego Padres, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 12,535$7,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,164.65 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 9,187$3,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,766.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 1,918$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 1,720$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.44 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 1,251$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.75 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 937.8$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.21 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 615.37$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.61 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 560.35$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.04 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 519.32$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…bdd5backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 446.98$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.61 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 437.2$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 434.13$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.63 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 413.75$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 27c | 315.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 315.15$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.16 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 280$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 203.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 63.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 58.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked San Diego Padres | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 54.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 40.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 37.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 35.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 34.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 94 | 73.4%69 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 13.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.