MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x888730a9428e9e6d99b9717e6c438ee694ae5e3a87b9d6d0a5e48efd44c61b97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 51c | 12,000$6,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,820.54 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 6,393$2,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,975.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 4,268$2,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.33 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 39c | 2,747$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 2,383$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.78 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…06ddbacked Over | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 1,342$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Over | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 24c | 530$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…bdd5backed Under | 45c | 455.6$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.03 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 63c | 259.19$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 236$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.07 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 67c | 201$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 24c | 193.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 29c | 155.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…8e87backed Over | 71c | 139.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 34c | 136.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 62c | 132.2$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 24c | 129$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 68c | 117.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 24c | 108.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 49c | 101.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Over | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 69c | 70.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 26c | 64.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 33c | 59.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 23c | 52.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 58c | 51.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9d…77debacked Under | 51c | 48.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…e8bcbacked Over | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268b…e58fbacked Over | 57c | 25.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 60c | 21.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 57c | 20.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.