MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb146c0cca6e7ec100adde8142d76da3f3f56c84becce814f2dd1da3b1969583
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 3,552$2,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Over | 31c | 3,320$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.21 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 3,029$1,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 46c | 2,306$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.44 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 55c | 1,635$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.67 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 1,415$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 31c | 1,162$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.36 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 13c | 1,158$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.22 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 68c | 1,054$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.57 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 56c | 884.18$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.98 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 47c | 864.57$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.22 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 70c | 800$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 72c | 556.82$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 539.35$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.28 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 42c | 441$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.42 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 57c | 382.53$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.06 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 317.09$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.63 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 112.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Under | 61c | 80.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 72.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 80c | 62.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 64c | 59.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 50.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 47.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 58c | 45.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 57c | 42.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 58c | 27.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 55c | 25.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…760ebacked Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 52c | 22.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…f6b5backed Over | 53c | 22.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 69c | 20.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 66c | 18.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 80c | 13.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay RaysDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.