Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb64c5d8a3643355a3897bd0026d6204224a2cb7893bf6d5aa45eeea05f9b572
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 58c | 422.13$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.85 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 63c | 296.29$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.17 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 20c | 242.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 212$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 152$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 42c | 145.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 115.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 43c | 110$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 46c | 100.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f8…1a89backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 98.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 43c | 97.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 47c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 48c | 82.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 58c | 80.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 80.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 67.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 42c | 66.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 57c | 65.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 37c | 64.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 60c | 61.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 54.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed No | 35c | 53.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 48.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 53c | 46.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x841c…f9b8backed No | 56c | 46.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 40c | 43.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 43.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 63c | 42.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 54c | 40.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 45c | 39.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 37c | 38.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed Yes | 40c | 35.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 34.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes | 63c | 31.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 43c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 76c | 29.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 61c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 43c | 25.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3021…f97bbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 55c | 24.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 61c | 23.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 63c | 18.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.