Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda30fc4ad50c8c78a14d95017be9ae04a9bce826fb7d89eb989338db217f87f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 2,122$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 1,228$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.53 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 58c | 1,053$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.1 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fe…43a7backed No | 76c | 1,037$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 722.66$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 71c | 389.81$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 62c | 330.15$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.49 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 315.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 75c | 296.36$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.33 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 47c | 285.17$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.71 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 24c | 266.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 28c | 217.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 152$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 144.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 142.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 141$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 27c | 133.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 26c | 124.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 23c | 106.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 44c | 104.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 21c | 100.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 79c | 96.1$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 89.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 22c | 86.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 60c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 81.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 77c | 80.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 26c | 79.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 76.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed No | 60c | 58.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 28c | 55.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 54.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed No | 77c | 53.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 70c | 51.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 30c | 49.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 43.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 74c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 38.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 35.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 34.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…9379backed No | 75c | 24.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…7222backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 66c | 16.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 78c | 14.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.