Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbb4dc55023c734cfbe3140c1a695f08ea3ee60a52e489de7711e1c607e316d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brighton & Hove Albion FCof Manchester United FC, Brighton & Hove Albion FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Manchester United FC | 35c | 2,857$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 65c | 1,884$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.07 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Manchester United FC | 7c | 1,250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.71 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 78c | 905.27$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.54 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Manchester United FC | 11c | 557.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…dd68backed Manchester United FC | 34c | 338.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.8 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2623…e65abacked Manchester United FC | 31c | 323.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Manchester United FC | 5c | 305.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Manchester United FC | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ec…c276backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Manchester United FC | 33c | 178.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Manchester United FC | 33c | 148.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 68c | 87.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Manchester United FC | 31c | 83.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Manchester United FC | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x058a…ed5cbacked Manchester United FC | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…ffa1backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 69c | 55.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 68c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Manchester United FC | 32c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…1df6backed Manchester United FC | 30c | 37.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…47debacked Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 73c | 15.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.