Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x106ece51e91f5f70af546ae1e709f6a715466179cb1790aadc0be05284914fe4

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,689
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,689 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	53c	14,694$7,740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,739.91	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	41c	14,227$5,833 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,393.85	4,768	41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Under	53c	4,554$2,436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,435.93	167	53.3%89 W · 78 L	-13.3wins	-0.08per pick	61cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over	64c	2,390$1,542 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$848.67	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over	73c	725$529 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.75	192	59.4%114 W · 78 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	33c	724.71$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.06	2,558	47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L	+44.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9453…22cfbacked Over	66c	609.64$404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.64	114	48.2%55 W · 59 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab3…6adfbacked Over	50c	400.41$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.41	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd76…b935backed Over	52c	388.73$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.23	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1523…2e5fbacked Under	57c	351.54$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Over	68c	350$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112	160	24.4%39 W · 121 L	-8.4wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over	45c	334$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184	167	31.7%53 W · 114 L	-18.5wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe082…04bcbacked Under	36c	307.17$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.58	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	41c	306.41$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.22	1,938	42.5%823 W · 1,115 L	-41.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked Over	66c	300$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	111	42.3%47 W · 64 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74dc…cc04backed Over	69c	208.55$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.65	150	60.7%91 W · 59 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Under	36c	207.72$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.24	174	28.2%49 W · 125 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	177	45.2%80 W · 97 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e52…2320backed Over	69c	200$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.8	46	67.4%31 W · 15 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38dd…ffb3backed Under	35c	185.71$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over	64c	155.92$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.92	95	50.5%48 W · 47 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe92c…d27ebacked Over	66c	151.52$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.52	87	43.7%38 W · 49 L	-8.5wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-25%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd8dd…ddbcbacked Over	69c	145$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.95	46	60.9%28 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f67…a1d7backed Over	69c	144.47$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.47	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ace…07c7backed Under	35c	142.86$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+3.0wins	+0.17per pick	53cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under	37c	139.83$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.49	181	39.2%71 W · 110 L	-7.7wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c6…367dbacked Over	55c	139.42$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.85	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	42c	132.4$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.17	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72e2…1d2abacked Under	32c	113.91$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.42	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	30c	106.44$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.69	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Over	69c	100.55$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.17	277	52%144 W · 133 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed Over	62c	100$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38	88	51.1%45 W · 43 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2810…a1a8backed Under	36c	100$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	216	48.6%105 W · 111 L	+8.6wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over	54c	93.67$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.93	198	53%105 W · 93 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b9e…cb21backed Over	59c	89.27$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.6	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	38c	87$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.06	1,004	46.3%465 W · 539 L	+25.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1110…0123backed Over	69c	86.71$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.88	65	53.8%35 W · 30 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb18c…df51backed Over	58c	86.36$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.36	110	53.6%59 W · 51 L	+11.1wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf085…5696backed Under	35c	85.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Over	70c	84.99$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.15	417	60.2%251 W · 166 L	+22.8wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over	59c	83.05$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.05	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	+3.3wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8535…2024backed Over	75c	82$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.52	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	57cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2961…cfcfbacked Over	61c	81.97$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.97	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0684…d1fabacked Over	49c	79.59$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.59	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	64c	78.13$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.13	559	55.1%308 W · 251 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f5…8797backed Over	69c	72.46$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.46	79	53.2%42 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Over	69c	72.46$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.46	188	41.5%78 W · 110 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	56c	68.66$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.24	891	52.9%471 W · 420 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5cb7…618ebacked Over	49c	68$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.68	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa354…b85fbacked Over	47c	67.13$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.25	241	58.1%140 W · 101 L	+34.1wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9236…da58backed Over	47c	65.75$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.97	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd8f…9a78backed Over	70c	63$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.9	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under	37c	60$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	396	51.5%204 W · 192 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98e9…8dbebacked Over	67c	60$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.89	66	36.4%24 W · 42 L	-5.6wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-23%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x25bb…b369backed Over	55c	55.98$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.98	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over	46c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	252	56%141 W · 111 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d72…c356backed Over	57c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	140	49.3%69 W · 71 L	-4.0wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x832c…c46ebacked Over	63c	46.67$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.27	80	50%40 W · 40 L	+7.1wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	45c	45.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Over	67c	44.78$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.78	222	44.1%98 W · 124 L	+19.0wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbabd…f4d2backed Under	34c	44.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	96	43.8%42 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c50…ab35backed Over	68c	44.12$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.12	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	62cpaid	-51%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3df…3e0cbacked Over	68c	44.06$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.06	65	58.5%38 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x024f…5857backed Over	65c	40.64$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.18	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Under	37c	37.62$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.92	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85a0…511ebacked Under	44c	32.77$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.36	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd612…0bc1backed Over	66c	31.82$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.82	172	54.1%93 W · 79 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over	63c	31.75$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over	64c	31.16$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.22	286	54.2%155 W · 131 L	-11.3wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58e4…d654backed Over	65c	30.02$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.51	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over	66c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.2	105	69.5%73 W · 32 L	+10.3wins	+0.10per pick	60cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f1f…8045backed Over	57c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-4.0wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x09b8…13a3backed Over	64c	25$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a73…c2e5backed Over	70c	24.38$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.26	76	59.2%45 W · 31 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	67c	23.72$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.83	159	66.7%106 W · 53 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab80…c47abacked Under	47c	23.41$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ec8…397bbacked Over	49c	23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.81	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf3a…47debacked Over	49c	22.92$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.67	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Over	69c	21.74$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.74	65	53.8%35 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Over	67c	18.26$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.04	271	41.7%113 W · 158 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c9…2bd8backed Over	65c	17.21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over	64c	17.19$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.19	211	43.1%91 W · 120 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Over	69c	17.13$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.31	87	63.2%55 W · 32 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	68cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5this page
Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Brighton & Hove Albion FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event