Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2eb9c7f73f4c00b19b6691e4dac771c0805a273204e86c198a244ca16a2d58d6

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $68,134
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $88,851

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,134 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9f03…766dbacked Under	56c	14,355$8,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,355.17	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+6.0wins	+0.22per pick	44cpaid	+64.9%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	44c	8,707$3,823 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,823.21	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under	69c	3,370$2,329 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,041.08	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	33c	3,280$1,091 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,091.5	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Over	49c	3,032$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	107	37.4%40 W · 67 L	-8.8wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Over	34c	2,813$967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$967.31	49	38.8%19 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ee…f7a7backed Under	59c	2,738$1,602 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,135.3	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-3.0wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-23%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over	44c	2,490$1,096 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,095.68	257	52.1%134 W · 123 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Over	24c	1,249$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.4	160	24.4%39 W · 121 L	-8.4wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	30c	1,042$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.6	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b1d…820cbacked Under	67c	959.08$642 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$317.08	23	73.9%17 W · 6 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	45c	905.38$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.29	2,550	47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L	+45.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Over	60c	888.65$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.19	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Under	66c	758.03$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.03	167	53.3%89 W · 78 L	-13.3wins	-0.08per pick	61cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	71c	751.47$536 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.11	1,004	46.3%465 W · 539 L	+25.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over	27c	621$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.67	293	43.7%128 W · 165 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c2e…a948backed Over	22c	517.45$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	-4.1wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa122…9847backed Under	78c	450.06$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.06	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	-7.9wins	-0.17per pick	56cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Under	79c	445.59$351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.98	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb50a…3348backed Over	48c	416.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-4.5wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Over	49c	408.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	103	43.7%45 W · 58 L	-8.8wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under	59c	392.71$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.71	76	57.9%44 W · 32 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x882e…54cebacked Under	52c	384.62$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.62	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	41cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefbd…8086backed Under	53c	365.53$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.8	175	44%77 W · 98 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	36c	340.83$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.9	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over	31c	324.3$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	167	31.7%53 W · 114 L	-18.5wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Under	56c	312.5$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.5	86	55.8%48 W · 38 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over	32c	246.6$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.83	290	41.7%121 W · 169 L	-9.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Under	58c	241.38$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.38	162	33.3%54 W · 108 L	-14.8wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	29c	239.98$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.49	577	44.4%256 W · 321 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over	32c	238.6$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.15	198	53%105 W · 93 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Over	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	+3.3wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6606…a628backed Under	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.15per pick	41cpaid	+31.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9379…3161backed Under	75c	183.36$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.98	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+39.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee1…3e28backed Under	58c	182.85$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.17	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	48cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf92f…bdb2backed Over	52c	174.1$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.96	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+2.5wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+46.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over	36c	161.86$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.51	181	39.2%71 W · 110 L	-7.7wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd12f…e80dbacked Over	38c	156.48$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.2	73	50.7%37 W · 36 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over	34c	147.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over	44c	125$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	350	56.9%199 W · 151 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+14%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x22b9…6ae2backed Over	38c	123.87$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.07	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-3.1wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9236…da58backed Over	32c	122.01$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.36	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfdd…dc4cbacked Over	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	75%18 W · 6 L	+3.9wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+33%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x754d…893bbacked Under	66c	108$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.32	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-4.5wins	-0.20per pick	61cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Over	47c	106.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	65	53.8%35 W · 30 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Over	21c	103.4$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.8	49	49%24 W · 25 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Under	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	408	41.9%171 W · 237 L	-8.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f1c…dc61backed Over	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	18	50%9 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f67…a1d7backed Over	24c	98.07$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over	43c	93.02$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	353	28.6%101 W · 252 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	79c	89.75$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.86	891	52.9%471 W · 420 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed Over	24c	78.72$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.73	57	29.8%17 W · 40 L	-6.5wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8993…222dbacked Under	67c	74.63$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.63	91	39.6%36 W · 55 L	-7.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Over	47c	74.47$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	76	42.1%32 W · 44 L	-6.4wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ec8…397bbacked Over	33c	71.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca6d…492bbacked Over	46c	70$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.2	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-7.4wins	-0.43per pick	55cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	30-0.18 edge/pick
0x85c6…367dbacked Under	68c	65.37$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.65	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Over	17c	62.51$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	117	12%14 W · 103 L	-8.1wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over	30c	60.83$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	252	56%141 W · 111 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Over	43c	60$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+3.1wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+77.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under	60c	60$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	396	51.5%204 W · 192 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Over	45c	54.97$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	222	44.1%98 W · 124 L	+19.0wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Over	40c	49.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.09	209	31.6%66 W · 143 L	-11.3wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Over	46c	43.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	32.8%19 W · 39 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x626d…86aebacked Under	74c	40.54$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.54	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832c…c46ebacked Over	40c	40$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	80	50%40 W · 40 L	+7.1wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e82…7b54backed Under	66c	38.55$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.11	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9120…102cbacked Over	27c	37.29$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa356…b3f8backed Under	55c	36.2$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	70cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	51c	35.24$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.22	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Over	47c	31.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	65	53.8%35 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ed…09dabacked Under	54c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Under	62c	28.98$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.96	120	55%66 W · 54 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd816…84b9backed Over	44c	28.38$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.49	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over	37c	27.43$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	91	37.4%34 W · 57 L	-7.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked Under	55c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.25	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c4f…03acbacked Over	47c	24.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.35	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa767…4240backed Over	44c	23.55$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under	57c	23.54$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.12	153	47.1%72 W · 81 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc30…8780backed Under	66c	16$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.44	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5this page
Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Brighton & Hove Albion FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event