Tennis · resolved market
Oeiras: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Matilde Jorge
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbbf1163cff2d35a60b08c4c9d051ae3d59aac1dd26f292ad514a15fa1c1bafe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jorgeof Stefanini, Jorge
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Stefanini | 0c | 11,756$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21aa…d590backed Stefanini | 0c | 5,718$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…6b13backed Stefanini | 1c | 1,750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Stefanini | 65c | 1,666$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.68 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jorge | 19c | 1,472$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.27 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Jorge | 42c | 498.73$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.73 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Stefanini | 68c | 479.69$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.26 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Jorge | 37c | 365.61$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.44 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…c2f0backed Stefanini | 70c | 321.63$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.52 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | -27.7wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…5b82backed Stefanini | 40c | 247.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Stefanini | 60c | 241.66$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 781 | 52.8%412 W · 369 L | +21.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Jorge | 42c | 233.65$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.65 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Jorge | 14c | 193.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.2 | 542 | 49.3%267 W · 275 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Jorge | 35c | 182.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.9 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Stefanini | 55c | 144.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…d11fbacked Stefanini | 75c | 123$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Jorge | 43c | 107.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 507 | 31.2%158 W · 349 L | -41.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…e4ccbacked Jorge | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 515 | 39.8%205 W · 310 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Jorge | 35c | 97.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Jorge | 68c | 96.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Stefanini | 45c | 92.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 341 | 59.5%203 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Stefanini | 61c | 86.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15c1…55f3backed Stefanini | 61c | 85.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Jorge | 39c | 84.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Jorge | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 442 | 29.6%131 W · 311 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…19fcbacked Stefanini | 60c | 78.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 136 | 52.9%72 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…de5fbacked Jorge | 30c | 77.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 168 | 30.4%51 W · 117 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Jorge | 29c | 66.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Jorge | 48c | 64.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3d…a3e8backed Stefanini | 64c | 60.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebd1…1e86backed Jorge | 34c | 59.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Jorge | 25c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 139 | 23.7%33 W · 106 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Stefanini | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 425 | 58.8%250 W · 175 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…35d7backed Stefanini | 80c | 39.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…2cc1backed Stefanini | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…438cbacked Stefanini | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oeiras: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Matilde Jorgethis page
- Stefanini vs. Jorge: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.