CS2 · resolved market
CS: Aurora vs FURIA
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbc556c516bd55be336558906046086dc7c197556972ce95dd191f598ddda614
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, FURIA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0fd…a346backed FURIA | 56c | 6,362$3,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,562.78 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Aurora | 44c | 5,354$2,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,997.97 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Aurora | 63c | 3,200$2,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.29 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed FURIA | 42c | 2,072$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.16 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Aurora | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed FURIA | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Aurora | 47c | 1,894$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.52 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…0dc4backed FURIA | 47c | 1,603$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.16 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Aurora | 46c | 1,533$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.12 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed FURIA | 54c | 1,462$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.24 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed FURIA | 53c | 1,331$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.59 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc5…53c3backed FURIA | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Aurora | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 208 | 55.3%115 W · 93 L | +18.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora | 43c | 977.01$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.9 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked FURIA | 34c | 929.12$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.95 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked FURIA | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…3f0abacked Aurora | 49c | 861.9$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.15 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora | 47c | 848.68$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.8 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Aurora | 45c | 841.24$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.09 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Aurora | 63c | 803.57$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.71 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed FURIA | 55c | 764.78$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.63 | 258 | 42.2%109 W · 149 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Aurora | 44c | 666$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.96 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Aurora | 46c | 654.22$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.28 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Aurora | 45c | 600.45$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.25 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked FURIA | 52c | 517.94$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.15 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed FURIA | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked FURIA | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed FURIA | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Aurora | 44c | 411.98$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.71 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Aurora | 49c | 405.18$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.64 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed FURIA | 39c | 387.24$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.49 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Aurora | 45c | 375$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.25 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e6…80d2backed FURIA | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 156 | 42.3%66 W · 90 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Aurora | 44c | 264$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.48 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa0…253cbacked Aurora | 58c | 251$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.42 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Aurora | 48c | 241.67$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.67 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…e633backed FURIA | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 300 | 39.7%119 W · 181 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed FURIA | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Aurora | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed FURIA | 28c | 195$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed FURIA | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Aurora | 43c | 175.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked FURIA | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed FURIA | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed FURIA | 41c | 92.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 208 | 56.3%117 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…a970backed Aurora | 44c | 92.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked FURIA | 53c | 92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked FURIA | 27c | 89.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked FURIA | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed FURIA | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed FURIA | 56c | 77.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Aurora | 43c | 76.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a73…957dbacked FURIA | 55c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Aurora | 49c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc1…ca19backed Aurora | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed FURIA | 56c | 63.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked FURIA | 55c | 58.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 289 | 64%185 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked FURIA | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed Aurora | 41c | 49.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc661…38ccbacked FURIA | 56c | 41.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed Aurora | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 283 | 46.6%132 W · 151 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…4fb1backed FURIA | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…33debacked Aurora | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Aurora | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd62…222cbacked Aurora | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed FURIA | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.