Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbcef67a8a2d7ac4271e0e97d2caa42dcd7a12ab15073105ae71f2dea3e072ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PlayTimeof PlayTime, Estar Backs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Estar Backs | 17c | 1,708$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.66 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5f…c343backed Estar Backs | 18c | 1,275$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Estar Backs | 11c | 1,003$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Estar Backs | 9c | 878.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Estar Backs | 9c | 505.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Estar Backs | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Estar Backs | 6c | 480.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Estar Backs | 16c | 476.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Estar Backs | 17c | 449.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Estar Backs | 21c | 420.33$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…e370backed Estar Backs | 13c | 405.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8154…7d37backed Estar Backs | 10c | 334$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 202 | 33.2%67 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Estar Backs | 12c | 328.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…9097backed Estar Backs | 22c | 313.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Estar Backs | 15c | 309.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f67…ba88backed Estar Backs | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Estar Backs | 13c | 299.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Estar Backs | 8c | 258.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed Estar Backs | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +76%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aba…debfbacked Estar Backs | 5c | 249.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Estar Backs | 13c | 246.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed PlayTime | 78c | 207.36$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…75f2backed Estar Backs | 10c | 202.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed PlayTime | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Estar Backs | 8c | 197.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked Estar Backs | 6c | 182$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Estar Backs | 10c | 158.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Estar Backs | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…0a0bbacked Estar Backs | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Estar Backs | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Estar Backs | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4c…c8c6backed Estar Backs | 16c | 87.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1238…09f7backed Estar Backs | 13c | 82.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…ec81backed PlayTime | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked Estar Backs | 14c | 78.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed PlayTime | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b7…3852backed PlayTime | 80c | 24.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…fa0ebacked PlayTime | 79c | 21.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed PlayTime | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked PlayTime | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 WinnerPlayTime won
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 WinnerPlayTime won
- Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5)PlayTime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.