Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x057e4714b121e84b294b0b196b2099f3533433a6d06d308edc9c0caf0ea9bb0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PlayTimeof PlayTime, Estar Backs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe59f…0d08backed Estar Backs | 18c | 15,155$2,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,688.12 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed PlayTime | 79c | 2,815$2,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.14 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Estar Backs | 11c | 2,207$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.82 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…a328backed Estar Backs | 25c | 1,856$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.99 | 283 | 47%133 W · 150 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked Estar Backs | 29c | 1,726$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.41 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Estar Backs | 19c | 1,436$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.14 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Estar Backs | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…3075backed Estar Backs | 18c | 837.6$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.44 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Estar Backs | 19c | 648.74$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…f081backed Estar Backs | 5c | 630$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PlayTime | 71c | 629.86$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.66 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked Estar Backs | 16c | 622.18$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…f65bbacked Estar Backs | 15c | 584.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.66 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5809…9868backed PlayTime | 72c | 539$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.14 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Estar Backs | 20c | 447.2$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed PlayTime | 75c | 366.6$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed PlayTime | 78c | 350$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Estar Backs | 19c | 349.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Estar Backs | 13c | 302$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Estar Backs | 25c | 294.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed PlayTime | 79c | 253.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked Estar Backs | 20c | 235.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 488 | 43.6%213 W · 275 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Estar Backs | 14c | 206.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d8…6acdbacked Estar Backs | 14c | 182.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Estar Backs | 20c | 175.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f6…f7e6backed Estar Backs | 19c | 172.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Estar Backs | 17c | 171.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1238…09f7backed Estar Backs | 14c | 147.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…75f2backed Estar Backs | 24c | 146.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed PlayTime | 74c | 136$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Estar Backs | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed PlayTime | 78c | 128$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked PlayTime | 79c | 117.05$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e5…c8d1backed Estar Backs | 18c | 114.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked Estar Backs | 20c | 101$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed PlayTime | 78c | 99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…d655backed Estar Backs | 26c | 88.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked PlayTime | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Estar Backs | 17c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Estar Backs | 17c | 61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d9…e73dbacked PlayTime | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…0566backed PlayTime | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked PlayTime | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b7…3852backed PlayTime | 77c | 18.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked PlayTime | 75c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsPlayTime won
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 WinnerPlayTime won
- Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5)PlayTime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.