Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e5674984ce84e9a2888ac102fe5a4bbec089c5eaf82293e060cf2f9b9e680fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PlayTimeof PlayTime, Estar Backs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe59f…0d08backed Estar Backs | 6c | 7,703$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.06 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked PlayTime | 78c | 2,826$2,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.07 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…a328backed Estar Backs | 22c | 2,111$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.42 | 283 | 47%133 W · 150 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked Estar Backs | 24c | 2,026$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.34 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Estar Backs | 18c | 1,658$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.99 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…f65bbacked Estar Backs | 10c | 1,003$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Estar Backs | 15c | 1,001$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.15 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e171backed PlayTime | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Estar Backs | 18c | 749.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc6…13c4backed Estar Backs | 18c | 746.72$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5733…4c87backed Estar Backs | 25c | 593.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed PlayTime | 77c | 429.99$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…e7dabacked PlayTime | 77c | 425$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 310 | 55.2%171 W · 139 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked Estar Backs | 17c | 417.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed PlayTime | 76c | 407$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.87 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed Estar Backs | 13c | 399.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked PlayTime | 78c | 380$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Estar Backs | 18c | 370.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked PlayTime | 79c | 340.71$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Estar Backs | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked PlayTime | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Estar Backs | 10c | 289.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed Estar Backs | 23c | 264.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked Estar Backs | 10c | 239.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 488 | 43.6%213 W · 275 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked PlayTime | 78c | 211.54$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 150 | 69.3%104 W · 46 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Estar Backs | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed PlayTime | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Estar Backs | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc646…e394backed Estar Backs | 26c | 199.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 376 | 55.1%207 W · 169 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…5eadbacked Estar Backs | 25c | 161.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1238…09f7backed Estar Backs | 24c | 161.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Estar Backs | 15c | 160.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8154…7d37backed Estar Backs | 10c | 131$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 202 | 33.2%67 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aba…debfbacked Estar Backs | 11c | 114.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…c192backed Estar Backs | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Estar Backs | 19c | 97.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Estar Backs | 23c | 93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…75f2backed Estar Backs | 24c | 61.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Estar Backs | 19c | 60.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked PlayTime | 77c | 51.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked PlayTime | 75c | 45.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed Estar Backs | 25c | 40.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked PlayTime | 71c | 39.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed PlayTime | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed PlayTime | 70c | 28.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed PlayTime | 75c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked PlayTime | 77c | 24.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed PlayTime | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed PlayTime | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…5f74backed PlayTime | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsPlayTime won
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 WinnerPlayTime won
- Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5)PlayTime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.