MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbd620805f7aee2905209a54b4dbb710cdba596b4838e70393472a9bf3340233
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 3,710$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.69 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 1,192$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.88 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 70c | 1,154$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Yankees | 70c | 1,044$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.11 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 68c | 954.49$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 625.41$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 601.84$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed New York Yankees | 78c | 399$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees | 69c | 229$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees | 66c | 224$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed New York Yankees | 70c | 168$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 145.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed New York Yankees | 68c | 93.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Yankees | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 42.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked New York Yankees | 66c | 29.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked New York Yankees | 68c | 26.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed New York Yankees | 68c | 23.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed New York Yankees | 68c | 23.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked New York Yankees | 66c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed New York Yankees | 66c | 22.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked New York Yankees | 66c | 20.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed New York Yankees | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed New York Yankees | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked New York Yankees | 70c | 16.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed New York Yankees | 69c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed New York Yankees | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked New York Yankees | 66c | 15.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.