MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x244074821bb0fba6596ca9953872b7d59fca2562043a8652bfa51a68452cbc50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed New York Yankees | 37c | 6,757$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,256.76 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 3,362$2,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.05 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Yankees | 54c | 3,083$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.28 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 2,160$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 2,011$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.72 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 1,517$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.24 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked New York Yankees | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 835.38$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.29 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked New York Yankees | 45c | 798.78$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.33 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 741$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.19 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 645$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 498.7$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.18 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 449.3$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.45 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked New York Yankees | 38c | 396.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.05 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 18c | 251.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed New York Yankees | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…8d26backed New York Yankees | 37c | 116.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 176 | 52.8%93 W · 83 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e4…9bacbacked New York Yankees | 37c | 104.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked New York Yankees | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 87.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…48dabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 45c | 73.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 70c | 68.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed New York Yankees | 23c | 54.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed New York Yankees | 28c | 54.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 52.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed New York Yankees | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked New York Yankees | 39c | 40.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 56c | 30.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c21…be9ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 20.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.