Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65–66°F on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc41612c6984860990f0cad47417183ecf000508c633e01dd41900700e44f015
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x043a…5a0bbacked Yes | 2c | 973.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 12c | 668.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…fe6fbacked Yes | 76c | 619.96$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 11c | 425.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 7c | 289.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 266.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 13c | 245.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 62c | 237.42$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.62 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +11.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…91e5backed Yes | 23c | 211$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 10c | 183.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 62c | 139.68$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Yes | 36c | 138$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 10c | 122$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…1aa0backed Yes | 16c | 94.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…c91ebacked No | 41c | 90.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…776ebacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0beb…9f16backed Yes | 38c | 74.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…6857backed Yes | 35c | 71.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 70.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 67c | 67.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e3…3728backed Yes | 38c | 60.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed Yes | 37c | 54.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…3f9cbacked No | 72c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…8728backed No | 62c | 39.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +171%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2894…c2f7backed No | 72c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ce…814abacked Yes | 38c | 34.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 39c | 32.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…9f15backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 61c | 23.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8d…ff96backed No | 80c | 13.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 65–66°F on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59–60°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61–62°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.