Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc4c340cfbcd4063a0b287180296ddbdb8ac665a9c1c78b789240497fafd39b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 37c | 3,324$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.22 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…180bbacked Over | 63c | 2,263$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -74%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Under | 37c | 2,179$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.05 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 2,070$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.93 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 49c | 1,265$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.13 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebc…89c8backed Over | 58c | 997.43$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.03 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 76c | 721.98$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.03 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 42c | 595$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.1 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 42c | 594.97$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.08 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 44c | 580.91$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.58 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Over | 56c | 562.38$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.9 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 58c | 499.35$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.82 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 53c | 424.93$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef57…827dbacked Over | 38c | 369.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.6 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 7c | 345.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 22c | 272.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…9343backed Under | 37c | 213$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 42c | 199.07$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.56 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Over | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe12…728fbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 70%56 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 40c | 144.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 63c | 132.67$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 40c | 114.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 60c | 95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 46c | 88.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 67c | 82.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 64c | 77.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 22c | 75.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 63c | 62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 44c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 66c | 42.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Over | 45c | 39.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Under | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…b567backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Over | 61c | 22.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 2.5this page
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 1.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 3.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: Team to AdvanceIlves Tampere won
- Spread: Ilves Tampere (-1.5)UMF Stjarnan won
- Spread: Ilves Tampere (-2.5)UMF Stjarnan won
- Spread: UMF Stjarnan (-1.5)Ilves Tampere won
- Spread: UMF Stjarnan (-2.5)Ilves Tampere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.