Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccd6d9dd5a1a800bd97977a4ee1d934a59c155701b4d280fe06ff8fbec571c38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a39…b0b9backed Over | 43c | 95,634$40,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,834.01 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 41,948$23,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,962.47 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed Under | 57c | 21,870$12,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,404.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 58c | 10,399$5,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,403.74 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 25c | 3,109$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.88 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 69c | 2,913$2,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.1 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 58c | 2,844$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.25 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 59c | 2,542$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.51 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 60c | 2,000$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Under | 57c | 1,945$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.48 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 1,750$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.5 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…180bbacked Over | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -74%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 56c | 1,100$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…91a0backed Under | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 58c | 862$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.04 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 57c | 582.25$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.69 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 60c | 320.15$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.58 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 59c | 320$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.4 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 57c | 312.25$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.75 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 58c | 278$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.38 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 66c | 223.49$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 18c | 210.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 8c | 186.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 61c | 179.21$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 76c | 163.42$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 79c | 163.35$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…0aafbacked Under | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…12a6backed Under | 59c | 134.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 60c | 119.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed Under | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…683ebacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 79c | 95.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 72c | 81.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…4b33backed Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04e2…38febacked Under | 57c | 47.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Under | 58c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 64c | 39.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Under | 76c | 38.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Under | 57c | 35.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…55d7backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4068…673ebacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7488…9cfbbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…3880backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…880ebacked Under | 58c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…56bcbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…6182backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0789…f7adbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…582fbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…6791backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…362bbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ea…fa08backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…0cf9backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d6…5e9bbacked Under | 58c | 33.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c3…e829backed Under | 58c | 33.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bff…cb72backed Under | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 57c | 31.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…b0c0backed Under | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 57c | 19.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Under | 59c | 18.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4f…5ec9backed Under | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 3.5this page
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 1.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 2.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: Team to AdvanceIlves Tampere won
- Spread: Ilves Tampere (-1.5)UMF Stjarnan won
- Spread: Ilves Tampere (-2.5)UMF Stjarnan won
- Spread: UMF Stjarnan (-1.5)Ilves Tampere won
- Spread: UMF Stjarnan (-2.5)Ilves Tampere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.