Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Ilves Tampere (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba240613fac962c128e377f039ce9c8e5a95b5cdb3b0403434fda0742a0f8722
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UMF Stjarnanof Ilves Tampere, UMF Stjarnan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a39…b0b9backed Ilves Tampere | 35c | 16,229$5,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,680.32 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed UMF Stjarnan | 65c | 12,240$7,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,277.99 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed UMF Stjarnan | 73c | 2,215$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.06 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed UMF Stjarnan | 66c | 2,079$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.92 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ilves Tampere | 29c | 1,884$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.26 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed UMF Stjarnan | 67c | 998.94$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.65 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…46c3backed Ilves Tampere | 36c | 558.33$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Ilves Tampere | 32c | 518.38$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.83 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed UMF Stjarnan | 68c | 440.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.12 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked UMF Stjarnan | 64c | 417.17$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.18 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…719abacked Ilves Tampere | 36c | 133.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed UMF Stjarnan | 73c | 125.33$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed UMF Stjarnan | 73c | 125.32$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed UMF Stjarnan | 65c | 119.01$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed UMF Stjarnan | 64c | 117$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed UMF Stjarnan | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Ilves Tampere | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed UMF Stjarnan | 65c | 51.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked UMF Stjarnan | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9e…48cdbacked UMF Stjarnan | 65c | 20.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ilves Tampere (-1.5)this page
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 1.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 2.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 3.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: Team to AdvanceIlves Tampere won
- Spread: Ilves Tampere (-2.5)UMF Stjarnan won
- Spread: UMF Stjarnan (-1.5)Ilves Tampere won
- Spread: UMF Stjarnan (-2.5)Ilves Tampere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.