Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc6ffba33fa2164f06bd7e4594b9bfe63bf24ed0d9f810545b1762d92e452e4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LGD Gamingof LGD Gaming, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad69…7397backed Pipsqueak+4 | 11c | 2,618$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.86 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Pipsqueak+4 | 19c | 2,017$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.35 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 13c | 968.62$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.91 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 17c | 537.01$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Pipsqueak+4 | 17c | 537.01$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Pipsqueak+4 | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…0d84backed Pipsqueak+4 | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48bf…f7e2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 10c | 281.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 22c | 270$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed LGD Gaming | 76c | 263.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked LGD Gaming | 77c | 258.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…b760backed LGD Gaming | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Pipsqueak+4 | 11c | 224.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…dcacbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 31c | 205.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Pipsqueak+4 | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed LGD Gaming | 78c | 199.98$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 7c | 198.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 11c | 192.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked LGD Gaming | 76c | 186.37$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…75f2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 22c | 178.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Pipsqueak+4 | 14c | 170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…49bbbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 13c | 130.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…0491backed Pipsqueak+4 | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…158fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Pipsqueak+4 | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…3855backed Pipsqueak+4 | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 173 | 37.6%65 W · 108 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d5…88e0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Pipsqueak+4 | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pipsqueak+4 | 17c | 104.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab87…117ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Pipsqueak+4 | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x638b…3defbacked LGD Gaming | 78c | 87.12$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 17c | 85.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 15c | 82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Pipsqueak+4 | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked LGD Gaming | 64c | 32.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed LGD Gaming | 74c | 20.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsLGD Gaming won
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Pipsqueak+4 (+1.5)LGD Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.