Tennis · resolved market
Nordea Open: Carabelli vs. De Jong
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc717fa17ab9c9bd394fa398b20d7aa7bfa9f87d6174347297e7bb8a513e0094
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- De Jongof Carabelli, De Jong
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed De Jong | 67c | 13,048$8,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,319.55 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Carabelli | 33c | 12,960$4,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,276.91 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed De Jong | 69c | 2,076$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.9 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…51a7backed Carabelli | 28c | 1,500$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked De Jong | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.58 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Carabelli | 20c | 1,064$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.91 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Carabelli | 46c | 1,019$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.57 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked De Jong | 52c | 991.73$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.63 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Carabelli | 23c | 939.24$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.82 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed De Jong | 54c | 600$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.6 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed De Jong | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked De Jong | 51c | 543.61$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.27 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Carabelli | 25c | 476.23$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…2b83backed Carabelli | 32c | 400.27$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.17 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Carabelli | 26c | 383.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Carabelli | 32c | 330$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.51 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed De Jong | 72c | 329.63$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.63 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…15cabacked Carabelli | 48c | 312.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed De Jong | 65c | 241.06$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Carabelli | 49c | 205.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Carabelli | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Carabelli | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Carabelli | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Carabelli | 35c | 124.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Carabelli | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Carabelli | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Carabelli | 31c | 69.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed De Jong | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc3…74c9backed De Jong | 53c | 46.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Carabelli | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Carabelli | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed De Jong | 53c | 25.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…8121backed De Jong | 54c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed De Jong | 53c | 24.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…8b08backed De Jong | 78c | 23.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…db19backed De Jong | 67c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.