Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs strongboys - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc76a166a4d3c729387c50c5618e1ab0a1631c83ced60bf213e5ca636d4d4251
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- strongboysof Rune Eaters, strongboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked strongboys | 52c | 15,767$8,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,516.39 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked strongboys | 50c | 7,498$3,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,736.23 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Rune Eaters | 50c | 5,977$2,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,967.68 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked Rune Eaters | 49c | 5,592$2,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,747.78 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rune Eaters | 49c | 4,815$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,354.49 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Rune Eaters | 49c | 2,997$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.25 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2905…6255backed Rune Eaters | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed strongboys | 56c | 1,162$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.19 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed strongboys | 51c | 855.96$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.96 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Rune Eaters | 50c | 600.21$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.53 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Rune Eaters | 52c | 288.77$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.05 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked strongboys | 78c | 253.96$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Rune Eaters | 16c | 249.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Rune Eaters | 47c | 249.75$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.38 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Rune Eaters | 38c | 244.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Rune Eaters | 52c | 232$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Rune Eaters | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed strongboys | 45c | 129.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Rune Eaters | 56c | 123.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed strongboys | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Rune Eaters | 41c | 109.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed strongboys | 47c | 106.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…1d2abacked Rune Eaters | 25c | 98.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Rune Eaters | 51c | 91.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed strongboys | 74c | 88.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Rune Eaters | 25c | 78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…24c2backed strongboys | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 130 | 61.5%80 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed strongboys | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Rune Eaters | 53c | 63.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Rune Eaters | 50c | 60.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Rune Eaters | 47c | 45.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7eebbacked Rune Eaters | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Rune Eaters | 58c | 33.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed Rune Eaters | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…8e55backed strongboys | 75c | 19.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs strongboys - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs strongboys (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group Dstrongboys won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs strongboys - Game 1 Winnerstrongboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.