Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs strongboys - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fb8d7d7e6dfd4a92e4f6a9f57404934d3c79d2d95f079bbfa1870d70c98a918
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- strongboysof Rune Eaters, strongboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Rune Eaters | 70c | 4,174$2,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,929.79 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Rune Eaters | 39c | 3,404$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.3 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked strongboys | 44c | 3,140$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.09 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked strongboys | 23c | 1,825$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.61 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed strongboys | 44c | 1,496$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.3 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…5410backed Rune Eaters | 1c | 1,394$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2905…6255backed strongboys | 52c | 1,344$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.78 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked strongboys | 28c | 1,272$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.9 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Rune Eaters | 50c | 899.99$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rune Eaters | 50c | 827$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.7 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked strongboys | 24c | 599$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.59 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked strongboys | 49c | 404.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.08 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Rune Eaters | 31c | 400$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Rune Eaters | 56c | 372.47$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.75 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed strongboys | 76c | 240.61$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Rune Eaters | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed strongboys | 23c | 199.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Rune Eaters | 51c | 180$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Rune Eaters | 42c | 172.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed strongboys | 38c | 151.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked strongboys | 43c | 139.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.72 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed strongboys | 65c | 115.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Rune Eaters | 74c | 113.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Rune Eaters | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Rune Eaters | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2758…2861backed Rune Eaters | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed strongboys | 75c | 69.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Rune Eaters | 75c | 66.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…b35bbacked Rune Eaters | 48c | 61.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed strongboys | 22c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed strongboys | 32c | 52.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked Rune Eaters | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…6373backed strongboys | 65c | 46.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Rune Eaters | 48c | 44.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked strongboys | 71c | 37.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2694…415abacked strongboys | 32c | 37.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…240abacked Rune Eaters | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Rune Eaters | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e99…6265backed Rune Eaters | 69c | 17.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Rune Eaters | 78c | 13.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs strongboys - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs strongboys (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group Dstrongboys won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs strongboys - Game 2 Winnerstrongboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.