Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs strongboys (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5b8219aed4a52d1143a5126dc571443e004267d2a84bbbd8a8586629ddea043
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- strongboysof Rune Eaters, strongboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked strongboys | 43c | 5,248$2,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,970.02 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed strongboys | 61c | 2,950$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.77 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Rune Eaters | 57c | 1,806$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.69 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a5…f0a8backed Rune Eaters | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked strongboys | 44c | 1,461$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.74 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rune Eaters | 2c | 1,165$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Rune Eaters | 56c | 1,007$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Rune Eaters | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2694…415abacked Rune Eaters | 2c | 982.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Rune Eaters | 30c | 873.81$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.31 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed strongboys | 43c | 672.33$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.33 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Rune Eaters | 24c | 650.17$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.73 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked strongboys | 60c | 540.43$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.55 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Rune Eaters | 57c | 512.71$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.24 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Rune Eaters | 44c | 375$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.07 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Rune Eaters | 55c | 357$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.64 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Rune Eaters | 54c | 334.17$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.37 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Rune Eaters | 57c | 330.6$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Rune Eaters | 56c | 300$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed Rune Eaters | 14c | 247.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked Rune Eaters | 41c | 198.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…07c0backed Rune Eaters | 56c | 176.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7eebbacked strongboys | 42c | 162.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Rune Eaters | 55c | 162.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Rune Eaters | 52c | 150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed strongboys | 44c | 146.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed strongboys | 42c | 146.32$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.49 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Rune Eaters | 58c | 122$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked strongboys | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Rune Eaters | 53c | 103.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Rune Eaters | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…880bbacked Rune Eaters | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Rune Eaters | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…ba95backed Rune Eaters | 32c | 72.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Rune Eaters | 31c | 67.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Rune Eaters | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked strongboys | 39c | 53.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed strongboys | 43c | 51.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed strongboys | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Rune Eaters | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Rune Eaters | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ab…9a41backed Rune Eaters | 34c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Rune Eaters | 28c | 41.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da5…8478backed Rune Eaters | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96de…6633backed Rune Eaters | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +400%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rune Eaters | 65c | 34.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Rune Eaters | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Rune Eaters | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…cd35backed strongboys | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Rune Eaters | 60c | 24.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3d…341abacked Rune Eaters | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Rune Eaters | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d8…2374backed Rune Eaters | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…9014backed Rune Eaters | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb67d…5d2dbacked Rune Eaters | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…8e55backed Rune Eaters | 62c | 19.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d22…d039backed Rune Eaters | 66c | 18.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…9079backed Rune Eaters | 67c | 15.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…7685backed strongboys | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs strongboys (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group Dthis page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs strongboys - Game 1 Winnerstrongboys won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs strongboys - Game 2 Winnerstrongboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.